The relative risk (95% confdence interval) for coronary heart disease, fatal coronary heart disease, stroke and fatal stroke was 17.8 (12.98-19.99), 7 (6.7-7.2), 5.9 (4.0-6.6) and 4.7 (3.2-5.7), respectively. The absolute risk (95% confdence interval) for coronary heart disease, fatal coronary heart disease, stroke and fatal stroke for 10 years was 3.79 (1.5-3.2), 9.6 (6.8-10.7), 7.91 (6.5-9.9) and 3.57 (2.3-4.5), respectively. The data for each patient was processed using the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study risk engine to calculate an estimate of the forecasted value for the cardiovascular complications after a period of 10 years. A projection for 10 simulated years was run on the engine and output was determined. The patients of metabolic syndrome were selected according to guidelines of National Cholesterol Education Program - Adult Treatment Panel III, modifed National Cholesterol Education Program - Adult Treatment Panel III and International Diabetes Federation criteria. Patient level data was collated from 567 patients suffering from metabolic syndrome through structured interviews and physician records regarding the input variables, which were entered into the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study risk engine. The aim of present investigation is to estimate the cardiovascular events associated with a representative Indian population of patients suffering from metabolic syndrome using United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study risk engine. Abstract: Long-term cardiovascular complications in metabolic syndrome are a major cause of mortality and morbidity in India and forecasted estimates in this domain of research are scarcely reported in the literature.These models contribute to the estimation of risk and/or health outcomes adjusted for quality of life for use by, amongst others, clinicians, trialists, health planners, guideline developers and health economists. For example, the UKPDS risk engine-version 2-estimates that a white 62-year-old man with 11 years of Type 2 diabetes, a glycated haemoglobin of 8.3%, a systolic blood pressure of 145 mmHg and total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol values of 5.8 and 1.1 mmol/l who did not smoke has a 33% chance of having overt coronary heart disease within 10 years. Equations were developed, combined and incorporated into the UKPDS Risk Engine and the UKPDS Outcomes models. The UKPDS made clearer the contributions to risk of age, hyperglycaemia, elevated blood pressure, adverse blood lipids and smoking. Using clinical, epidemiological, statistical and economics methods, UKPDS investigators developed mathematical models that helped define predictors (risk factors) for cardiovascular disease including angina, myocardial infarction, stroke, peripheral vascular disease and death in Type 2 diabetes. Although known principally as a clinical trial, the UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) provided longitudinal data which helped define the natural history of cardiovascular complications in Type 2 diabetes.
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